The Expert Fallacy: Why Experts Are More Likely To Be Wrong About New Information

I've recently been told to "stay in my lane," and that "I'm not a scientist, doctor, or epidemiologist."

The Appeal to Authority is a logical fallacy you often see, especially in 2020, as the masses readily believe whatever they see on TV.

"Mistrust arguments from authority. Too many such arguments have proved too painfully wrong. Authorities must prove their contentions like everybody else.-Carl Sagan

This has been a response to my sharing of what is going. I've used an understanding of biology and a dose of common sense to offer a  counter-to-the-narrative perspective. The conclusions I've drawn are this:   the  "experts" are forcing unconstitutional interventions that have no basis in reality and are based on shaky evidence or no evidence whatsoever.

It is understandable to get pushback. Many people don't like hearing that what they heard might be wrong or flawed. Many don't have the time or wherewithal to question the status quo. Many don't even care to question what's going on. So they take their "free" handouts from the government while staying home all day lounging around (it's not free btw, the American public will pay for it, and it's going to be brutal when the bill comes due).

Finally, most want to believe that a piece of cloth over their mouth—any cloth—will protect them from the unseen invader. They then go on to shame others that don't buy into the narrative.

What we get from all of this is a further divide amongst the citizens. This keeps the people fighting themselves instead of fighting the ever-encroaching government and the elite that profit from it all.

So when someone tells me or anyone to "stay in your lane," I think of this quote:

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."

  • Upton Sinclair

Hospitals get paid for each case they report. There are no audits or verifying of the data. Instead, all the hospitals have to do is write COVID on a piece of paper and the government sends a check.

Yet we're supposed to trust this data?

Even if this were the only data point we had, we would have all we need to see through the incentive errors that exist. But there's so much more. Like the fact that the death rate has been going down throughout this so-called "second wave," something the media never reports on.

Instead, they use fancy graphics to perpetuate fear.

Remember, the media is in the fear-mongering business. This is what they do. Always have.

Why is medical malpractice insurance so high? Maybe because the amount of deaths in the US each year from medical error is around 250,000—the third leading cause of death in America. Hmm.

Want some other reasons to distrust the medical system?

Here are a few (source):

  • Medical billing errors cost Americans $210 billion dollars a year - 80% of medical bills contain AT LEAST one error. Hmm.
  • 12,000,000 million Americans are misdiagnosed each year. Hmm.
  • 7,000 - 9,000 patients die each year from medication errors. Hmm.

Doctors receive a single class in nutrition yet are somehow trusted for doling out nutrition recommendations. And obesity and heart disease are STILL the number one and two killers—both preventable through lifestyle and diet.

Doctors receive a few hours of continued study requirements each year, making them years behind current research. Few take it upon themselves to stay up to date.

Blind trust of the medical establishment is a corporate, profit-driven lie. Don't even get me started on Big Pharma.

Again, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." -Upton Sinclair

Humans are humans regardless of what fancy titles or training or schooling they have. And thus, they fall victim to the same errors of judgment and bias that the rest of humanity does.

The Appeal to Authority is used by lazy people that don't think for themselves.

If you look at the history of science, scientists are wrong MOST OF THE TIME. Every era is a bunch of humans thinking they know so much. Every future era is humanity looking back at past eras like children—aww, aren't they cute with their primitive theories and technologies.

What will the 2100 humans say of 2020?

I have my theories, but one thing is for sure: they will have a lot to say, and most of it will make us look like ignorant, self-assured children.

Accepting the reality of human ignorance and how fast things change does not benefit the expert that bills based on his or her expertness. It is very hard to keep up. I'm not claiming any of this is easy. And the medical establishment does save a lot of lives.

The problem we have today is the public delegating critical thinking to the experts, or worse, the politicians. Then the same public goes to attack anyone that challenges the narrative. A casual glance at history shows how dangerous this behavior can be (and will likely lead to some kind of civil war or revolution).

There is a strong case for how the expert, because of her financial and career incentives, should be the last person to turn to when new information presents itself.

I'll take the interested independent researcher over the expert ANY DAY OF THE WEEK and twice on Sunday.

"Science isn't the sum of what scientists think. Had Science operated by majority consensus we would still be stuck in the Middle Ages and Einstein would have ended as he started, a patent clerk with fruitless side hobbies."-Nassim Taleb