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1 Hour of Bitcoin: What it is, What it isn't, Price predictions, First Principles

Kevin Stock and Colin discuss all things Bitcoin.

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TRANSCRIPT:

[00:00:00] All your decisions should be based on what's going to happen in 10 years. And the best way to do that is just the buy and hold and not try to time anything. That's just my perspective.

[00:00:17] Wow.

[00:00:22] Welcome to the better human podcast. I'm your host. Colin stuckert entrepreneur CEO, father coach growth, minded, and obsessed with becoming better human. I'm here to help you level up your mind, body in life. I want you to become a better human. I want you to wake up everyday excited about getting better, getting things done, working on yourself, and then making the world a better place around you.

[00:00:44] That's how we're going to change the future for humanity. And that's how we're going to solve the biggest problems we have in 2021 and nine. Yeah. That's how the world's going to become a better place for my sons and hopefully future daughters. The more better humans we have that can critically think that are self-aware the better chance we have at creating a future that we all deserve.

[00:01:04] Make sure you get all the updates over coach to get on the better human newsletter. You can also reach me anytime. Colin, C O L I N at wealth food co sports show, head over to wildfoods and use code wild CEO for your nutrition needs. We have local roasted Austin coffee, our flagship product while Coca Tropic is a great coffee booster or coffee replacement.

[00:01:26] If you're trying to cycle coffee off, as I've been doing lately, obsessive, we source real food products from nature to support your lifestyle needs. Let's get to the show. Wow.

[00:01:41] The old coin craze of 2017 got me. I was even thinking about doing a crypto hedge fund at the time, but I have all these ideas as an entrepreneur. I always have more things that I could do than I have time to do them. So it was just one of those things that kind of fell by the wayside. And it was, I was in Bitcoin at the time.

[00:02:00] [00:02:00] But I was also looking at a lot of other things, like a theory of them and Carano and all these other coins. And like a lot of them are like really cool projects and everything, but I didn't really understand the difference between Bitcoin and these, these other cryptocurrencies. Uh, that distinction is very, very important actually, which, which we can unpack.

[00:02:17] And so I owned a little bit, I bought a few all coins and my Binance account and I was like, no, I just let them sit there. I don't care. It was like, I probably spent, like, I probably invest like $10,000 and I bought a mix of coins that were popular and I just like, let them sit there. And actually recently I logged into my Binance account and I had made some money.

[00:02:34] I think I maybe doubled my money. And now my problem is trying to get my money off finance because they closed the accounts, the U S customers and Binance customer service is a fricking nightmare. So like, I literally have money locked up there that I'm going to convert to Bitcoin. And so once you can, that's a good lesson.

[00:02:49] Right, exactly. Right. And so, uh, I was like into it. I've always been a tech person, you know, entrepreneur, gamer, like these things. They very much appeal to my personality. I like new technology. Like I knew I'm, I'm willing to be an early adopter. Right. I don't have fear around that kinda stuff. Like, you know, being a poker player, entrepreneur, I like taking risk.

[00:03:09] Right. I have a very healthy, um, but, but I would say that I don't like, I don't like gambling, but I like taking calculated risks. There's a huge difference. That's why I actually, now my strategy is basically just buy Bitcoin, right? Like, and hold and not trade or sell or anything. Right. And so that's part of that epiphany is getting to that point.

[00:03:24] But at the beginning I thought maybe I'd trade a little bit, but I didn't really get into it. That's that's a whole nother world you have to get into. And so I bought some and I let it sit there. And uh, I just, then I went back to work, went back to business, whatever, and then obviously so much has changed since then.

[00:03:38] And then 2020 was like that next big step. And you know, we can pause at any point if you want, but 2020, it was like the next kind of, um, like, look what the government's doing. Putting small businesses out of work, like pumping all this money into the system, expanding the Fiat, the dollar supply, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

[00:03:55] And I went into like prep mode. I was like, okay, let's get our food and our guns and [00:04:00] ammo and all those things taken care of. That's pretty easy. Let me get my finances taken care of. I bought a lot of gold and silver and I had probably 10% or so I put into Bitcoin and it's one of those things it's like, I should have done the opposite.

[00:04:13] Obviously hindsight is 2020. And so since then, uh, 2021, and I got to really give credit to Michael Saylor from a micro strategy that really tipped me over the edge. He kind of filled a lot of the gaps from a first principles perspective about how to think about Bitcoin. And one of the biggest aha moments for me was thinking of Bitcoin, like a digital real estate.

[00:04:37] Know the ability to leverage it because I always thought about Bitcoin is like, okay, I, I have my monitor energy stored. There it's a hedge against inflation. It protects me. It like all the amazing benefits that Bitcoin allow, but it's not really doing anything for me. And as an entrepreneur, I like when my capital is doing something, I want to buy cashflow real estate, et cetera.

[00:04:56] And then he, he talked about in some of these interviews almost as an afterthought. Yeah. Like, you know, we'll, you'll be able to leverage your Bitcoin, get a, collaterized a collateralized loan, use that loan to do it. Everyone want to buy business, run, buy real estate, whatever do that. It's just like what, you know, rich people have been doing for years where they buy chunk of real estate.

[00:05:13] Then they say, Hey bank, give me a loan against this and then use that, that money to buy other things. And you just create this perpetual money machine. I mean, it's just literally how the risks keep getting richer is they do things like this. They take out, they buy assets, they hold them. Right. And then they leverage against them to buy more assets and it goes on and on forever.

[00:05:29] And so that was a huge opening in my mind about like, oh my God, like, this is what Bitcoin can do. And then the parallels to real estate. It's exactly. In fact, what we're going to see in the future. This is where it gets real crazy. Banks are gonna be more willing to lend on things like Bitcoin. Then real estate, it's going to be easier for them.

[00:05:45] They own it. They can control it, right. They don't have to go through a foreclosure process. If you default into the loan, they just take it out of your account. It's going to be insane. So defy Bitcoin, like these things are literally revolutionize, revolutionizing everything. So at this [00:06:00] point, besides the Binance, do you own any other crypto assets or just Bitcoin?

[00:06:05] I don't. I've I've I own one ether that is literally just in an account that I didn't feel like selling. And even with the hype that's going on right now with it, like, I feel like I should sell it. Uh, I don't, I think ether could maybe grow for years just through the hype, but ether and everything is not Bitcoin.

[00:06:26] Like Bitcoin is just this elemental thing. It's this natural almost discovery that we've been able to figure out. Whereas all these other things are just like kind of, I look at them as like private projects that, um, can literally go dead or do very well or whatever. And it's pure speculation. Whereas I view Bitcoin as this thing, that's been like unleased in nature that is not going to, can not be controlled censored or put back in the bottle and it's going to keep just growing and growing, growing the way that the way it's doing.

[00:06:53] And since you can't stop it, it's, it's a, it's a force that we can't control, which is why it's going to suck up all the monetary energy as Sarah talks about. He's like money finds the best assets. It always does. Right. There's a, there's a law around a Grisham's law or some crap and like, that's, what's going to happen.

[00:07:07] So, yes, to answer your question, I am about, I would say I don't want to really throw, throw numbers out there, but basically this is how I think about it. Um, I own a load of gold and silver. I sold most of my, my gold, uh, recently actually converted that to Bitcoin and I. Anytime I get extra dollars from a paycheck, from income for whatever.

[00:07:29] I literally feel like when it's sitting in my bank account, I'm just wasting away. I convert that to Bitcoin, basically like, like I'm, I'm down to where I was when I started as an entrepreneur where I'm like living hand to mouth because I wanted to own as much Bitcoin as well. Yeah, I think same. I think we just said is for me as well, as I think for others to make their way into Bitcoin, the easiest way to think about it is people fear.

[00:07:52] I'm going to buy something. And so once you buy it, it feels like loss. If you change the mindset is I'm just going to go hold my money in [00:08:00] Bitcoin for now. Okay. And you're not buying anything. You're just transferring it to hold it in Bitcoin and not cash. And then it's not so scary. You're like, Okay. I'm just, I'm still, I'm just holding cash, but cash has Bitcoin.

[00:08:12] Yes, because I did the same thing. I mean recently with S with some income, basically, I was like, Bitcoin's at 60,000. If I'm thinking from like an investor standpoint and like, you know, it was pretty heated right now. I don't want to buy, but I'm like, you know what, I'm just going to park my money over here in Bitcoin instead of in cash.

[00:08:33] And then I feel like, oh, I'm not trying to time the market or anything like that. It's just like, yep. I'm holding it over here. Uh, and like, I feel like people make that switch. It's easier to that's. I think that's the mindset that I had, which allowed me to initially get in. Cause I'm like, okay, I'm not buying anything.

[00:08:49] I'm not, I'm just going to trading. Let's go hold my cash over here. Yeah. The separate account. Yep. Uh, and so, yeah, interesting. Now I do want to talk about. More about, uh, your strategy moving forward. Uh, but I wanted to make a comment about Ethereum because I bought a theory on back in 2017 and may, but mostly like what you were talking about.

[00:09:14] So I guess I could rewind real quick, quick back story. These hype, the cycles we've gone through, I think are super important. And I don't know if Toshi Nakamoto did that on purpose, but the first hype cycle, or you can consider it the cycle around the happenings. Right, right. Yes. He did do that on purpose.

[00:09:29] Yeah. Yeah, because I didn't hear about Bitcoin until 2013 and that, that was the bubble, the bubble quote unquote. Right, right. It spiked up to almost a thousand or whatever. And that's when I heard about it, when I got interested, I got my first Bitcoin wallet started, like trying to understand this technology.

[00:09:44] But like you said, it usually takes months. The boat wants before you get in the next time. So in 2013, you know, hindsight 20, 20, I would've been, I would've stuck with my enthusiasm. Push through whatever, fast forward to 2017, you know, the next bull market starts [00:10:00] trending up. I get into the technology again.

[00:10:02] Finally, fortunately allocate some capital into Bitcoin, but I also went into a theorem because like you said, to me, it felt like normally if we had institutional investor to put money into a startup and I've studied startups, I've been fascinated, stored up to like you an entrepreneur. And one of the things investors say about startups is like, you invest in the founder and I'd listened to Vitaly Buterin.

[00:10:29] Who's basically the founder of Ethereum, kind of the face of Ethereum, the head developer, whatnot. And he was 21 years old or something like that. And I'm listening to this guy talk, I'm like, holy shit, this is this the smartest kid I've ever listened to. And I was like everything between like his knowledge of CryptoLocker cryptography to like macroeconomics, like there, cause there's such a massive spread of.

[00:10:52] W like stuff to know in crypto. And I was like, I'd never heard anyone articulate ideas. Like he, like he had was articulating. So I basically put in some money into it there. And just as like a speculative investment, like a startup investment, kind of like what a venture capitalist would do an angel investor would do normally would be held out of those opportunities.

[00:11:11] Uh, but because of the nature of crypto, you know, we're able to put money into a, to a token like that. And I do think I, so I still hold ether, but I'll probably end up selling most if not all of it this year, because I think, well, I think still think like metallic is like a wonder child. He's still only like mid twenties tackable.

[00:11:31] He's actually a risk though that he is, he's a scent, it's a centralization in a whole decentralized world. Uh, and I think everything, the whole purpose of Ethereum, I think all of that can and will be built on top of Bitcoin. So you won't have to, you'll have one. Well, you'll have Bitcoin base layer. And on top of that, you'll have the application layer like lightning, where that's going, et cetera.

[00:11:56] So I, you know, I don't know what the future of Ethereum is, but I, I [00:12:00] have a feeling it will be on top of Bitcoin and not a separate thing. And cause to me, that's what makes sense. And right now with Durham has the biggest, you know, pool of developers and things like that. So there's a lot of promise in that.

[00:12:11] And I don't think it's disappearing any time soon, but like you it's like if you want to like throw money at a project. Sure. But to me at this point, it's like, Bitcoin's the winner might as well just double down on the winners. Yeah. Well, and the thing about this way, so TCIP is internet protocol, right?

[00:12:31] They've already established is not even the most effective one. No, but it's in trend. Exactly. It was entrenched. It hit the network effects, made it so that you can't replace it. Exactly. And the billion dollar company. So here's the thing about this. The billion dollar company, trillions of dollars of wealth have been built on top of the protocol.

[00:12:48] If you were able to somehow get some kind of financial stake in that protocol in some way, that's what Bitcoin is basically internet of money in that it's but Bitcoin is unique in that you get a stake in the entire financial system of humanity. Right? Right. I like how Michael Saylor puts it, like there's 21 million pieces of the financial world, like real estate and you can buy a piece of it.

[00:13:18] You can own a piece of it. Yep. And when you start thinking of it like that, you're like, oh shit. Yeah. Well, and how that compares to Ethereum is I look at a theorem, if it can do a lot of the smart contract stuff and all these different things. And if it does carve out a use case for that in, in, in like Bitcoin, you know, doesn't take over completely or whatever.

[00:13:37] Like maybe there's like a, a way for them both to coexist, there's going to be different projects can be different things. I think there's cross compatibility that can be developed at time. But yeah, I don't think that. I think a theorem is gonna be more like a TC PIP protocol where, why does the coin have to have any value, right?

[00:13:55] You, you need just enough to maintain the network and then to kind of make those things happen. But there's no [00:14:00] reason that like Ethereum, isn't going to suck financial energy out from other assets. Whereas Bitcoin is because they're completely different things. Right? So I look at Ethereum as like, okay, what is our base amount is to be worth to transact in it.

[00:14:11] Maybe you want to NFTs on it. Maybe you want to, maybe it does end up being like the second internet that does all these cool things, right? There's no reason for that to 10 X, a hundred X, a thousand X and value because it's not, it's not basically playing the financial game. Whereas Bitcoin is a decentralized asset that all of the financial energy in the planet, $400 trillion or so is being drawn to like a magnet because of the merits of the thing and how amazing it is basically.

[00:14:38] Right. And one of the things. One of the biggest value propositions of Bitcoin is, you know, the rules, right? And the rules are basically, the rules are untamperable, uh, with Ethereum, the rules are malleable and they recently just did an update where to kind of be a competitor with Bitcoin too, for basically similar to like a having schedule, or it becomes, you know, they set a mile to a monetary policy to make it a store of value.

[00:15:06] Um, so, but that's the thing, you, you don't know what the rules are and they could be changing and, and since they don't have the network effects of Bitcoin, it's not entrenched like that. To me, it's still very much kind of like a project and a risky central aspect. It's kind of a speculative investment at this point.

[00:15:22] Yup. Yup. Okay. So let's talk a little bit about this, uh, having cycles. So I know it sounds like you're a fan of Michael sailor. He thinks this having stuff is like, that's fine. You can't look at history and base our future. Uh, basically he buys predictions on that. He says all your models fall apart when Godzilla shows up to your basketball court and just destroys everything.

[00:15:42] Exactly. So do you subscribe to that or do you think we're going to have another cycle and just for quick for the listeners quick rehab? Bitcoin has, is having every four years, basically it's a supply shock and we've seen consistently after the having, we get this bull market where price tends to go [00:16:00] parabolic, and then we see a 70, 80, 90% correction in price for, you know, a period of time, usually a three year pretty stagnant before we start the next parabolic run.

[00:16:09] That's what we've seen so far. And. Right now it is looking, we saw in 2017, we saw 2013. It's looking like in 20, 21, we're seeing the start of this parabolic rise, which the likely is not going to come to fruition until, uh, let's say end of September, October, November, December, sometime in those months. Yup.

[00:16:28] Uh, now there's this theory that now that institutions are coming in, we're we, we may see this parabolic rise, but we're not going to see a crash. Like it's kind of just going to keep going up and up and up. What do you think? Okay. So let's define what sailor meant by saying that all your models are relevant.

[00:16:44] When Godzilla shows up to your basketball game. What he's saying is when you find this all over Twitter, you have people talking about how they're going to predict this they're charters. They look at charts and whatever the, if, if the future was dictated by what happened in the past, then, I mean, we'd all be trillionaires because we could just predict what's going to happen.

[00:17:03] Right. But we know that it doesn't happen. Okay. So the past is, does not give you, it might give you some cues about what could happen or maybe some clues, but. Right. Nobody can time the market. Um, the, the most famous investors of all time, like Warren buffet, particularly, he just buys assets and holds them.

[00:17:19] He doesn't care about price fluctuates. He doesn't care how stock prices, unless the stocks are down. And he has a buying opportunity. Okay. Selling, I have this philosophy that the majority of investors don't beat the market or do anything substantial because they're too overactive. They try to buy, they try to sell.

[00:17:33] They try time. I mean like, yeah. I sold Bitcoin in 2017. I don't remember what I bought at and what I had, but. I would probably have a lot. I would have lots of money, basically, lots of financial energy if I didn't do that. And I, and I, and I gave some of that financial energy to the IRS. Cause I, I, there was a tax capital gain there.

[00:17:50] Right. So it's like, what? So it's like, I don't even like looking in the past really. I don't like thinking, oh, woulda, coulda, shoulda. Um, and I have friends that have done that on an even higher degree to where they could [00:18:00] have bought it at like $50, but they were paying too much attention to Peter Schiff and they were too into the gold bug thing and he convinced them to not buy the coin.

[00:18:07] And then he's like, Peter shift cost me millions of dollars. Basically. I listened to them. Right. So you have to be a first principles thinker. You have to think for yourself and you almost always have to be contrary to what everyone else is doing. So if there's a lot of hype in the market, if there's a lot of money flowing around, if there's a lot of these amazing things and there's people talking about which coin and this and that, whatever you're gambling is pure gambling, pure speculation.

[00:18:25] Okay. So I don't like to make price predictions other than that, or shorter than five years. So do I believe that Bitcoin is going to be worth more today than it, uh, more in five years than it is today? Yes. That's why I want to hit 60. I was buying because I had extra cash. I don't care if it corrects down, whatever, as long as it doesn't go to zero or maybe to like under a thousand, like, and even then I'd probably would just like, get as much money as I can to buy more.

[00:18:50] If I really like, if I really believe in the technology and I do, uh, that's what I would do. What you see in Bitcoin is that there is so much conviction. It's, it's like a religion. And that's very good though, because we need to be able to protect the network and to believe in it. And we have, we have this religion of holding, which means that there's going to, we're going to continually raise the ceiling, uh, not the ceiling, but the floor raise the floor.

[00:19:18] Because like I posted on Twitter the other day, I was like, the reason Bitcoin is gonna win is because every time there's a dip, everyone's like freaking out and like predicting how it's gonna be, whatever. I literally scour my bank accounts for more Fiat to buy the dip. That's how you find all the money.

[00:19:32] I would keep buying it. Right. That's how, you know, You have strong conviction in an investment because that's why I love it cited by volatility. I was telling you I is the best asset for me because I love when it drops so I can buy it. And I love when it goes up because I own it. And I'm like, that's, that's when you know you have conviction.

[00:19:51] So tell me this, there is no price that you're going to sell Bitcoin at this year. Oh, absolutely. I, I actually might, I probably will never sell [00:20:00] Bitcoin in my lifetime. I'll probably pass it on to my kids. Okay. So I just want to run, I just want to run a scenario or a scenario. I think people are underestimating the parabolic run we're going to have this year.

[00:20:12] I think we will see the common thought is this Bitcoin will go to two, 300,000, correct. Down to a hundred thousand. Basically modeling, what's known as the stock to flow model, which has become really popular. Uh, and then we'll sit around a hundred thousand and 24 roughly. I think that's not going to happen.

[00:20:31] Are that could happen? I think that it has a probability. What I think probability though, I think we're underestimating it this year and I think we'll see, I, it seems crazy to say right now, but I think we'll see something north of five, six, seven, even 800,000 in Bitcoin in sometimes that late Q3 Q4. But I do think we're going to see a correction again.

[00:20:54] Uh, and I think it'll probably correct down to, I don't know what it's gonna correct down to, but I assume at least 70% from there maybe eight, probably 80%. So this is my thought, I mean, and this is just from just going so deep down the rabbit hole and, you know, studying people way smarter than me and try and make sense of their models.

[00:21:14] And so. There is a case for me personally, where if Bitcoin, I can see basically on the, on chain data, it goes up to let's just say 800,000. And it seems like we're at this blow off peak and there's on chain indicators, I would say, okay. We kind of hit the peak where selling a percentage of the Bitcoin.

[00:21:33] Yeah. Going to pay a hefty capital gains taxes on this. However, if it does do the 70, 80% correction over the next 12 months, 18 months, I can then buy my Bitcoin plus X percent more Bitcoin because I made that trade. And this is not like trying to day trade. This is more of like a four year cycle macro trade.

[00:21:53] And you know, it's kind of against the Bitcoin gospel, like you were saying, like, I, I've never sold a Bitcoin. [00:22:00] I've never sold any crypto asset. I, everything I've bought I've held, uh, which is just Bitcoin. About 50 ether and a light coin. And I bought a light coin back in 2017, just because I knew if I bought one, I just wanted to keep a track of it.

[00:22:14] So I haven't sold anything. But I do think at the end of this year, if it does this parabolic run, that I kind of think people are underestimating that we could see, uh, taking some chips off the table for the only purpose of being able to buy more in 2022, 23. Yeah. Yeah. So that's, that's actually reasonable logic, but here's where I side with Michael Saylor on this point, the re I didn't really answer the question of what does Michael Saylor mean when he says your models don't work when Godzilla shows up what he means, and let's say the metaphor of Godzilla is.

[00:22:47] When central banks, or even the rumor from a game perspective that central banks are going to put on the balance sheet and then they'll start doing it. Or when the rumor that apple is going to put on about, on his balance sheet. And so then Microsoft jumps the gun. He means that all your models don't make any sense because we're moving into uncharted territory where things are completely unpredictable and they can basically hit this meteoric rise with a few tipping points where then it never comes down again forever.

[00:23:12] Right. And if you believe that as I do that, Bitcoin is going to suck up a lot of the financial energy for the human race, right over the next five to 10 years. And then we take into the fact that. Nobody has ever, ever been able to predict correctly, uh, what happens in any market, right. And the people that do, especially Bitcoin.

[00:23:31] Yeah. Well, they get lucky if they do, and then it doesn't work again. So you don't really hear about them again, like nobody can really do consistently the people that win consistently are like the longterm Intel, like the guys that do it for, for a living and they buy assets long term, they really think from like a macro perspective and like 99% of humanity isn't going to do that.

[00:23:48] Doesn't have time to do that. Right. Yeah. And they also can't apply those models to Bitcoin. So even then, Warren, Buffett's good at buying old boring companies and he's built his fortune that way. You also built his fortune in one of the greatest bull runs of just [00:24:00] America, right. And the financial system and the reserve currency.

[00:24:02] And like all these factors, post-World war II that were there that set him up perfectly. We might not ever see that again. I mean, we're literally inflating away the stock market and American businesses, like what, what people, what the government is doing with Fiat. Is going to actually, instead of talks about this, a lot is going to destroy the earning power of a lot of businesses.

[00:24:19] It makes it so that you thought money, but then the cost of capital goes up. And so now your revenue can't even compete. You're operating. No, it was like, there's a lot of things I don't even understand. Uh, though I do look at Zimbabwe or Venezuela or whatever, and you can, and so a cup of coffee, because one day it's double the price or triple.

[00:24:35] And like, how do you conduct commerce in that kind of environment? And that's really what we're heading to, unless there's, unless there's something that's going to fix it. So I believe that the second one of these main tipping points, one, one of these institutional investors, or one of like the, you know, the handful of billionaires that decide to like follow the other billionaires.

[00:24:54] Right. We're just going to see this, um, monkey, see monkey do effect. That's going to literally skyrocket in. I don't believe that we're going to see a Bitcoin volatility evening out. Within 10 years, like maybe within 10 years it will mature. And like, Bitcoin will be a hundred trillion, $200 trillion asset, right?

[00:25:12] Like it'll and then gold will have its place, civil rabbits place, always different things will kind of stabilize. And maybe it becomes the base layer of humanity and all the, all the Fiat pegs to it. And then we have this, then we, then we've solved so many problems, humanity, because we fixed the money.

[00:25:24] Like if that happens that way, it might take 20 years. Who knows? Um, then every thing until then in my opinion is too short term thinking. Yup. So you should, so all your decisions should be based on what's going to happen in 10 years. And the best way to do that is just to buy and hold and not try to time anything.

[00:25:39] That's just my perspective. And then not, not give any your financial energy to the, to the IRS, right? Like you're literally going to know if you sell, you are always going to give some, unless it's a loss, you're going to give some of the energy to the IRS. There's nothing you can do to prevent that. Yeah, for sure.

[00:25:53] So Bitcoin hits a million dollars this year in 2021. You are, I'll tell you what I'll do is after holding strong, [00:26:00] I'm going to, I'm going to leverage it. I will take out a 33%, 55% LTV loan out. I will then use that hopefully to buy up real estate. That's at a discount because of some crazy stuff that's going on or I'm going to buy car washes or businesses, or, you know, some stores or just to, just to push back up just a little bit against that.

[00:26:16] Cause here's what my thought. If it hits a million this year, it's going to hit a million for about five seconds. And so, because just if it hits a million, I think it's due to a parabolic, basically the hype curve. And we're at you go from greed to, uh, I, I can't, I can't think of what the top, whatever it is.

[00:26:36] It's just like delusion, you know, you know, unicorns, everything like that. And so just like 2017 where it like touched 20,000 for a minute before it dropped down to 16,000 and then, you know, all it's way down. I don't think we'll be sitting at a million dollar Bitcoin in 2021 for any substantial amount of time if we hit it.

[00:26:56] So to be. On a platform saying right when it hits a million, give me a loan for 30% can be that's 300 grand right now. Uh, that'd be great. I just don't. I think that process takes time and to try and time to get a better that rate. Whereas if you are watching on chain indicators, things like that, you just see massive, massive inflows of Bitcoin onto exchanges, which is basically a good indicator that a lot of people are about to sell a and it's like, okay, man, maybe we are at that hype that the peak of hype let's exit some here, which you can, I'm not gonna say you can time the top of this because you know, like, like you were saying, it's, it's unpredictable, but there's, you can make educated trading decisions.

[00:27:37] Let's just say, uh, where you can actually get that. Yeah. You're going to pay capital gains. Uh, but to me there's a, for people that are deep into the modeling of this and on chain analysis and things like that. Yeah. I think there's a, you can make a case for selling some in order to buy back. Uh, if you think.

[00:27:57] This Michael Saylor strategy, a grill is not [00:28:00] going to come wreck the game. Like you said to me, the sign of never selling a Bitcoin ever again, would be if central banks are buying it because to me that's game over. And like you said, that could be a game theory thing. Even if there's like a rumor about one selling it, which causes another one to art, there's a river one's buying cause another one to go by.

[00:28:19] I mean, the game theory is, is real. Um, but I think that's what we're going to see in four years. So you think, well, if it hits a million and I have a loan out, let's say it's 33% LTV that my margin call doesn't come in until it's lost 77% of its value. Right. Or maybe the margin calls at 50%. And like, there's, I don't think you'd be able to get a loan of a Bitcoin at a million.

[00:28:43] I mean, cause you know, I think what we're going to see is a very, is a parabolic rock. You know, here, let me explain this. So today I did, I literally did this today before podcasts. Good timing. I. Had my, most of my Bitcoin in a cell, in the Celsius out. Okay. Now there's different platforms that do this. They all have their different risks and everything's not investing advice is what I did.

[00:29:05] Uh, I did, I took out a 33% LTV loan against my Bitcoin holdings. Yeah, I did the opposite instant instantaneous. So yeah, that's what I'm gonna explain that this is kind of how it happened. I went through the process, like looking at the things in the app again, on my phone, outside in the Austin sun, I'd have to go to a bank and it's called anybody.

[00:29:22] I'm talking anybody. Uh, I adjusted the throttle, how much interest do I want to pay? How much I'm going to get? What, what my LTV is. If it's 50% LTV, it was like 9%. It was 33% LTV, which, which is loan to value. Meaning how much do I need to stake against that? Like the lower you go, the safer it is for them.

[00:29:37] And th thus, the lower interest you pay, the 33% was like 7%. And then they even have a 1% option where if you do only 25% LTV, meaning if you have like a million of Bitcoin, they can give you a loan up to $250,000. They charge you 1% interest. Cause they just know that like it's, it's, uh, yeah, we don't want to get into that, but like it's crazy.

[00:29:57] And I think crypto banks are going to completely destroy [00:30:00] institutional banking, which is another reason why I'm so pro all this, because what we're seeing is actually not just like this one asset, that's gonna suck up energy. We're seeing, we're going to see a revolution of the entire financial industry on a global basis.

[00:30:10] Right? And that's, that's going to bring all this different money is going to, it's going to bring institutions in. And that's why, um, Michael Saylor is saying that God, when God Godzilla shows up, when all institutions are in, when every apple, Facebook, Google decided to put a few billion dollars in a balance sheet, or maybe they were hold all of their cash in a reserve currency, like which we could say over the next four years, if the Biden administration keeps doing what it's doing, that's gonna become more and more lucrative because the people that manage the money for these companies are going to be like, we're losing 25% of our cash a year.

[00:30:40] And if you're, if you're. Apple, they have about 140 billion hundred, 3 billion cash. They're losing billions of dollars in purchasing power every year, because they don't know what to do with their money. Right. So he says like, when these behemoths that have all this capital, now these institutional investors that will meme invest and do all the swing stuff.

[00:30:58] Right. Which I think drives a lot of the craziness. I think institutionals actually stabilize. Right? And because this is an asset that you tend to want to hold, right? You have all these other things that kind of change the future and make the past, not as indicative of what can happen in the future. And I see it, the more that asset matures things also become less volatile.

[00:31:17] And the ups and downs are, are higher and lower, right. Or less high and less, less low. So I go to Celsius app, I hit approved for the documents approved 30 minutes later, I get a notification on my phone that the loan is approved. This was thousands of dollars that they loaned me. Right. And it's going to be my bank account because I chose bank account.

[00:31:36] I kind of got a stable coin, which would have went. Even faster. Yeah. Like I think it would have been instant. So like within 30 minutes, not talking to a single human, right. I become my own bank. Right. It's unbelievably powerful. Right. And going to change everything. So I'm doing that. And I have some investment opportunities that I'm looking into.

[00:31:56] Some, some physical businesses that cashflow, let's say I get [00:32:00] to get that business cash flowing. Uh, my principal, my interests are now paying down that loan. My Bitcoin is still mine. It's just collateralized. So it's, it's, it's pledged against something. So when I pay off that loan and get all my Bitcoin back and in the, in the one to two years or three years or whatever I want to do for my loan term, my Bitcoin is likely to appreciate at 200% a year, maybe more right, and really appreciates at 20%.

[00:32:26] The financial arbitrage and the differences here in the spreads, they're insane because there's never been an asset in our lifetimes that have been growing at this rate. Right? Like it's just, it's just a completely different world. We don't even know what we're getting into. Like the big one was the discovery of, for humanity, right.

[00:32:40] And solving buys and the Byzantines general problem and the decentralization, all these other things. So that's how I'm thinking about it. It's defy. It's it's the future is going to wake up the sleeping giants and things are gonna be completely different than happens. And like, I just don't think that, okay, so I'll close this thought out.

[00:32:58] Sailor had a quote that I was dreaming about, like w in my dreams I'm like dream about this should think about this. Like when your subconscious is going, you have drinks. He's like, I woke up one morning, like 7:00 AM, half asleep. And I, and I recall this quote from a video I watched the night before. He's like, John, I have nightmares that nobody's going to sell me Bitcoin.

[00:33:18] Every day I wake up, nobody's telling me, but going in this guy, one guy. Is so convicted that every extra penny that he makes for his billion dollar company is trying to buy Bitcoin. Well, what happens when we have like, I'm a mini Michael Saylor at this point, I will keep buying. So, so if we think about it, that way, every dollar that Bitcoin increases every value, right?

[00:33:37] And the more exposure gets, the more social proof it gets, right? Because humans invest, they follow humans, institutions, follow institutions, central banks, fall, central banks. It's all social, like investing in whatever most people think the stock market is safe or real estate is safe or whatever. And they know nothing about the pros and cons.

[00:33:51] They don't even research it. They just do it because people do it. If we hit a million dollars of Bitcoin, I mean, it could wake up a billion humans that didn't even know about that before. [00:34:00] Right? Like, so if we can get like a thousand Michael sailors billionaires that will keep buying it thousand institutions that have billions and billions dollars, financial energy, maybe 500,000 mini Michael sailors, like myself that have a little bit of money and then maybe like a billion people that just want to store a couple of hundred dollars there because everyone else is doing it.

[00:34:17] I think it just destroys all the models we hit terminal velocity. You can never come back. That's my philosophy on it. I, I think similarly, so the way I've been thinking about this is to two things. I've been thinking a lot about the four, like having cycles, the models that have been very predictive up here and say like, where, what might happen this year, but I've been trying to.

[00:34:39] I think we are in a super interesting macro economic environment, like basically 2009, we had the housing crisis and right after that, sure enough, the white paper was released and that started this whole thing. And in 2020, we kind of had the next, whatever you want to call it next, you know, the COVID crisis.

[00:34:55] But the next form of, okay, now this is monetary policy interest rates. Interest rates are near zero, add zero print, trillions, and trillions of dollars. Fed buys, assets fed is buying assets. How does this end? What's the end game? And then there's so many, EITs actually I post this, my newsletters coming out tomorrow where it's like, I'm thinking about these macro economic trends.

[00:35:17] If you've heard of the fourth turning, um, I've read it. Yeah. So the fourth time the individual sovereign was predicted this number, not where the sovereign individual was visual as well. What Ray Dalio talks about. So, well, the long end of a long-term debt cycle, which is what we just described, where the interest rates are at zero in the monetary policy.

[00:35:33] The only way to do it is print trillions of dollars. It's like, it seems like there's a macro reset. That's going to get pressed. And we see, and I don't know, I don't know what it's gonna look like. Cause I've, there's the obvious inflationary forces of printing tons and tons of money. But there's also the, I think a possibility of deflation, the deflation, like the collapse, [00:36:00] deflationary forces, um, and people like Kathy Ark are Cathy would have arc investment and Jeff Booth, who's a big Bitcoin or like they have this, the price of tomorrow, the price of tomorrow.

[00:36:12] And so they're talking about, we are heading into a world of exponential deflation due to technology dropping prices. And to me, what I cannot wrap my head around is how this, how this is going to end because we're printing money, which is devaluing the dollar. Basically the purchasing power of a dollar goes down, but in a deflationary exponential environment, The purchasing power of a dollar actually goes up because technology drives the price of goods down down.

[00:36:38] So you'll be able to buy more for a dollar, exactly. Consumer goods, but not for assets. What did I say or talks about asset inflation? A lot it's scarce assets. So I like, we will see scarce assets go to the moon. Yep. And even commodities. Right? Because commodities are things you need. They're not, it's not like unlimited, it's not limited supply, but not unlimited supply.

[00:37:01] Right. You actually have to pay for these things. So, and it seems like this fourth turning now, like I, cause I had not read that book. And so I watched a bunch of videos, read a bunch about this thesis online. And my like the, for the answer to the fourth turning is Bitcoin it's it seems so obvious. Uh, but I think we're going to see one.

[00:37:21] So basically I'm saying all this, because what of think something I think could happen is. Uh, move out of, so we have this equity market that is super inflated right now, and people have their money, their smart money might be like, okay, I'm going to go put this somewhere safe because this is which, you know, depending what that means.

[00:37:42] But if a lot of people do that, if we're going to see a crash of the equity market, or if interest rates rise at all to try and stop inflation, we're gonna see a collapse of the stock market. And so there's an opportunity and this is trying to time the market it's stupid. Um, but this is where my brain has been going this year is if we see a [00:38:00] parabolic rise of Bitcoin this year, and you're able to sell some, take some chips off the top, And it does do it's cyclical, 70% crash correction and the economy tanks too.

[00:38:11] You have a lot of cash, which is what you would want in that environment to buy assets like S stock I've wanted to own forever, but I've never bought. Cause I've always felt as employee is Tesla. It's like, I'd love to buy Tesla. But to me, like I look at the PE ratio and whatever, and I'm like, I can never, I can never justify buying Tesla, but if we had a correction of the stock market, it wasn't so inflated.

[00:38:34] And I would, I would definitely buy that because I see the, that would be like, look, I think Tesla is going to be one of the few companies that's here in 20 years. Like a whole lot of companies, I feel super confident about that. It's like 20 years, this company is gonna, they'll be going in the right direction.

[00:38:49] So I want to hear what, what's your thoughts on the macro economics? What's going to happen with the stock market in the next 10 years, commodities. Gold. What do, like, what do you think. Today's show is sponsored by wildfoods co real food superfoods from around the world and particularly the wild Coca Tropic, which is one of our flagship products.

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[00:41:42] So again, wildfoods Darko use code wild CEO for 20% off your entire order. I consider myself a student of all this for my entire adult life. I feel like I've, I've probably read over a hundred books on investing stock market, whatever. I've, I've listened to thousands of videos. And I still don't [00:42:00] feel like I really understand it.

[00:42:01] That's how I, I, I mean the same day, but I think that's to my advantage because like, I hear these guys talk about things like interest rates or whatever. Like, I, I, I barely understand why interest rates, like why zero is just basically not stainable. I mean, it's straight through to the cost of capital you're you can't run an economy with 0% interest.

[00:42:18] Like it literally doesn't work like it's mathematically impossible. So we're just kicking the can down the road. I mean, that's what the fed does. Um, but these are things I don't really understand. I like to take the very broad first principles approach. That's why sailor pushed me over the edge because I'm a first principle thinker.

[00:42:31] He's, uh, I've always considered as a little bit of an iconic class. I'm always willing to go against what everyone else does. And what's mainstream. In fact, I actively seek it out at this point in my life because I found that that's where the truth is. And that's where the results are. Like anything that you do because everyone else is doing your taking on.

[00:42:47] Extra risk. You're creating fragilities and it's probably not the best thing to be doing. Like, so just think for yourself, right? So I have no idea what's going to happen. But if I think from this, from a first principles perspective, all the things we talked about with Bitcoin and the financial energy and how it's going to attract like a magnet financial energy, regardless of what happens, regardless, what the fed does.

[00:43:06] And at this rate, deflation inflation, the fed is printing money. We can have deflation in certain technology in certain things, but I mean, if you think about it, this is how it answer that question. I feel like the things that we have that we need to survive are not subject to deflation as much. It takes a certain amount of energy to create a pound of grass-fed beef, right?

[00:43:26] There's like proof of work there, right? So you can't really take technology and like grow beef in, in a, in a week and make it good and healthy. Like that just doesn't exist. We don't have that technology yet, but I can make like apps and certain things cheaper and like certain technological things. But like, it's still going to be a certain amount of proof of work that has to go into mother nature, which fuels us, right.

[00:43:46] A certain amount of proof of work into raw building materials, uh, which is why you have lumber at record high. And you have cost of building at record highs and then the scarce assets that people want, like beach front property, or at this point, any real estate or farmland or [00:44:00] whatever, these things don't benefit from technological deflation.

[00:44:05] I mean maybe a little bit, maybe around the edges, maybe like up to 10%, because you can like have more efficient organizations, but it's not like Moore's laws taking effect here. Right? Like, you know, like we have Silicon innovation, Moore's law, things like that, that can take that, that can create deflations, all these different things, but there's, there's still a baseline that science hasn't been able to figure out, like until we can basically scientifically create really, really good fruit food for humans and put into a small pill, like until we're at that point.

[00:44:31] Um, I don't see deflation really hitting the things that much of humanity needs. It's all the things that we don't really need that could kind of go. Right. So I think that's the one thing about like inflation versus deflation, but the other thing about the stock market, that's, that's interesting. And I don't know as much about this, so I'm, I'm basically parroting what what's, Taylor's talked about.

[00:44:51] He's he, when he goes really in depth in this, he talks about how the financial models for a lot of the S and P 500, the big, the big companies. When the cost of capital, which is a fancy word of saying basically inflation, like how much you're losing in financial energy every year, it starts hitting 10%, 15%, 20%.

[00:45:06] Well, your entire business may not, may no longer be feasible. Right? Right. Because you might make like, let's see your margin. It's 10%. Like you have a 10% profit margin after all is said and done. And you're making that and Fiat, you're literally losing money by operating your company, even though you're you could be generating millions and millions of millions, of dollars of profit of cash profit.

[00:45:26] Right. Right. The system, the underlying system is, is rotting away. And so I've, I'm, I think I'm going to sell myself, all my stocks. I have some I've kept some, I like owning companies. Um, I pick a few companies. I like that I think will be around for the long run. And I'm just willing to just buy it and ignore it basically.

[00:45:45] Yep. So I'd think about even selling and if I was going to ever time anything, the way I'm thinking about it is I'm storing my financial energy and Bitcoin. I can leverage it at any point. I need to. Uh, to then buy real estate businesses and maybe [00:46:00] stocks, if we do have a major, uh, inflationary event, deflation or event, whatever.

[00:46:04] Right. So I like thinking about Bitcoin as a way to store my financial energy. And that's, that's like what we talked about. Like instead of it being like an investment or speculation, it's just, I'm parking my energy there. And, uh, it's, it's it's wealth. It's my family's wealth and it will, it will keep growing.

[00:46:22] Uh, but even if it doesn't, I would still keep it there in the current environment we're in, because it's reached a level of sanity and it's, it's, it's, it's beyond what they can put back, like fix it's beyond, uh, fixing at this point. And so we have no idea what's gonna happen in five, 10 years. Like some major correction is gonna have to happen.

[00:46:42] Yeah. And that's, I mean, that's what I've tried to be like make, I like to try and form a thesis of what, like, I think might happen. But at this point I don't even have a thesis that. That principles. Well, what would your first principles? Because I think of things like, I think, cause you mentioned real estate and usually like real estate, super interesting to me because first principles thinking you buy a house.

[00:47:09] Okay. You think in my head, when you buy that house should be the most valuable that house ever is. It's brand new. If you live in it, it's not that's the distinction. So does the thought in today's, you know, real estate always goes up. I mean, we know that's not true because we solve the housing crisis. It actually just maintains personal power.

[00:47:30] It's almost like an inflation. Yeah. Yeah. But so the one interesting thing, I, you know, I was talking to my girlfriend about this. I'm like when you buy a car, for example, it's an easier example. If the value of that car goes down because you're using it at wear and tear. When you buy a house, logically the value of that house should decrease over time.

[00:47:52] Because you're using it, it's breaking down. You're gonna have to more repairs down the road. So, but housing appreciates [00:48:00] really only because the dollar is depreciating. I mean, that's the only explanation. Well, the two differences here is real estate can produce income. It's a usable asset. And so in the future, if tests, if Tesla has it so that your self-driving cars can go around and be a, a mobile Uber, it will completely change what a car, as an asset actually is.

[00:48:17] Right. We're not there yet. So that brings me into kind of my next thing I was thinking about with real estate right now. The real estate market is inflating. Okay. How's how's the prices are super high. Now. I feel like there has to be a reckoning point. Unlike I feel like almost the stock market can just inflate indefinitely and there's just becomes a total disconnect between, you know, what, we're already there, but I mean, exactly.

[00:48:41] We are already there. Yeah. But for housing, because it is an income producing asset. If you go buy a million dollar house and you're trying to rent it out on what to pay that mortgage to someone who is not who let's just call them a middle-class PNL, but a middle-class American it's like, look, I'm like, you know, I can only spend $1,200 dollars a month on rent.

[00:49:03] Yep. We'll keep going up. So from taxes. So then it's like real estate. The pricing has to make sense. And there's a correction there. So exactly like in 2009. Exactly. And so I feel like, I feel like that markets, like if I was busing a bunch of cash right now, and it seems like real estate. Always like a decent investment, but I almost feel like alive.

[00:49:24] Maybe not. Right? No, I, I, I, I very much agree. Um, it's housing is even like buffet talks about how it's the price you buy an asset. Like he talks about stocks generally. It's the price you buy that matters. And housing is absolutely the same. Um, I think there's some more wiggle room. And the thing about real estate also is like, it kind of follows, it takes some time for these things to manifest.

[00:49:44] So like the stock market could be at all time highs, but the real estate market might lag for like two to three years. Also. Here's the other thing, we're in an environment where there is still a mortgage, a memorandum or whatever they call it where they lenders have not been [00:50:00] able to foreclose on people not paying their mortgages.

[00:50:02] Right. Right. I think there's even a rent eviction thing where you can't even evict people for not paying the rent. Then come to a race like it's it's, this shit is we're, it's a circus at this point. This is not sound economic principles. It's not a free market. We're we're basically living in the United States of socialist America.

[00:50:21] What we've, what we've, we've come to and how more this will continue and what new, crazy ideas we'll come up with. Right? You can't really invest in this environment and like your models broken. I feel like that's kind of why it's there. It talks about where, like, so those models are broken, go to a model.

[00:50:41] That's going to benefit you with all the craziness, which is where Bitcoin is. Whereas real estate and stocks are going to probably there's going to be pain there because we don't know what they're going to do. And they control so much of it and they control so much of the policy. Whereas Bitcoin is outside the financial system itself.

[00:50:54] Yeah. You know, it's like gold. And so I think this is what we're talking about is like the next four plus years. Oh, that's going to drive. Bitcoin's growth is I've spent so much time this year, literally an hour every day, while I'm working out, listening to investing economics, Bitcoin podcasts, et cetera.

[00:51:14] And I'm thinking like, where can I put money? Like, where's a place to invest it. And like you said, there's like nowhere to go. It feels like, I feel like you can go into the stock market. Right. You invest in equities, but it seems like it's super expensive. And it's like, okay, it's, it's pretty overheated.

[00:51:32] You look in real estate. It's pretty overheated. It's like, where do you go to find a yield? Uh, especially with inflation. So if you take into account inflation, it's like bonds are giving you negative VO real. So you're losing money with bonds. It's like Bitcoin is like almost the only answer you can go to, to try and find yield.

[00:51:51] Exactly. That's yes. Yes. And it's not even yield. There will be yield, but you're. W when the world wakes [00:52:00] up to that, Bitcoin is the only kind of safe place, which every single day that governments operate and do their stupid thing. Bitcoin, like you said, like you literally went through the Socratic method and you're like, there's nothing else.

[00:52:10] Like people wake up to that. When, when companies wake up to that, when companies that have lots of money and private individuals have lots of, lots of dollars or whatever, they're just like this shit isn't working anymore. I'm not willing to just let the government steal because inflation is stealing out of your bank account.

[00:52:24] People don't realize that inflation is a silent tax, as they say, when people wake up today, drill is stealing from the poor it's stealing from the working class and inflates it assets that the rich own. So it, it, it creates a bigger divide. Of course it does. Right? Yes. And that's a whole nother topic. Um, the Fiat standard is, has made it so that the greatest divide in the history of humanity has happened in like the last 40 years and in the, in the world and America specifically.

[00:52:51] But. It's going to become obvious and then all the models before are gone and yes, the way I'm thinking about it, the only two things that are worth owning, I feel like at this point, and there are real estate, the only, it just depends on the real estate. There's so many other things there's execution risk.

[00:53:08] There's there's tax risks. If you own, if you own real estate in California versus Texas, like, you know, like the things they do, whatever they want. They're like, so, you know, there's always variables. You have to know what you're doing. It's not as obvious as like buy real estate in your good as it used to be.

[00:53:22] Yep. Um, so Bitcoin and businesses you control, I feel like are the only two things and I own silver because I like it and it has an industrial use, but that's, it's not really an investment. That's just kind of a storage of wealth. And you know, it, I mean, I could maybe hit money inflation, so that could actually over 40 years, maybe I could lose value or whatever.

[00:53:42] It'll probably gain value. Cause there'll be another kind of safe Haven that people will, will come to. Um, but yeah, like owning. Assets that can produce income or maybe even like IP owning IP. That'd be like another one, but usually you own that through a business. So like owning a business so you can control, not that you own, like after wall [00:54:00] streets had it say right where they make it super expensive for you.

[00:54:03] They siphon off all the money or whatever, you know? And so like, I have most of my wealth and my own business and I w I have the restaurant wealth and Bitcoin, and then I use that to buy other businesses, like maybe car washes or things that like produce income, um, that people are always going to need, you know, most likely, right.

[00:54:22] Unless if the world breaks down and we have zombie apocalypse and none of the shit matters anyways. Right. So it's just like, that's how I'm thinking about it. Like, so, and I'm playing a waiting game so that if we do move to a financial, a sound money system, if the Bitcoin becomes a world reserve currency, Then I'm going back into the mode again, I'm buying up as much businesses and cashflow and things, and maybe I get it back on the stock market.

[00:54:42] Maybe I'll buy it. I'm buying Airbnb real estate properties. Like whatever, like, or may I get into rare art or something? I mean, yeah. Rare arts and other thing, but that's like outside my purview or what I could afford. Yeah. It's funny. Cause I actually came to the exact same conclusion this year where I'm thinking, because this has kind of been like a financial goal year for me, financial independence finally get ahold of finances, things like that.

[00:55:06] And so it's been like top of mind all year and I've like I said, I've been listening to all these things. I'm like, okay, like what to do, what to do, what to do. And the conclusion that I came to is the two BS, Bitcoin and businesses like to me, I mean, I was almost like everything else is like, like you said, there are opportunities.

[00:55:27] If you go super deep and niche, like if I really understood everything about real estate, I could probably turn that into like a good investment, like decent ROI. Same thing with stock equities and whatever you can probably, if you were super intelligent, get decent ROI. But to me, like the only two things that actually are like, long-term, it's going to create financial wealth.

[00:55:51] Financial independence is Bitcoin in businesses. Like to me, there was like nothing else. And like, that's like what I decided that's going to be my [00:56:00] diversification and diversified in those two asset classes. And that's basically what I did because I was trying to figure out what to do. Like I think what percentage, you know, a perf portfolio should be in gold and commodities and long by that volatility and equities and bonds like standard traditional financial advising, which probably makes sense if I was already super financially free and just wanted to try and preserve wealth, probably focus more on that, but.

[00:56:26] You know, at this point in my life, it's like to me, the only the safest and the most upside, those are the two things, a hundred percent. Well, usually you have to choose risk or reward. But to me it's like those two are like, they feel like the least risky with also the most amount of reward. Well, the models don't apply anymore.

[00:56:45] That's the thing, the models don't apply. We've printed one fourth of all us dollars in existence within like a 12 month, 40 mile period of time. Right. So models literally don't apply. They literally don't apply. Right? So all traditional investing this, that whatever, right. Um, we're at a 50 year anniversary of Nixon taking us off the gold standard.

[00:57:05] This is, uh, this is just one more example throughout history of Fiat dollars, the FIA system, uh, losing 97% of its purchasing power, whatever, and then will eventually collapse. So nothing that works before that was considered safe or whatever is, is I even believe that the stock market is probably going to stop working because.

[00:57:24] The underlying money that they're transacting in and denominating, it is toxic. And therefore that parasite is infecting balance sheets and PNLs and businesses. Right. And then inflation is effecting the consumer on the consumer end that will affect supply chains. It's oh God, it's just like, what are they thinking?

[00:57:43] They're not, they're just, you know, it's a political four year. I don't care. What's going to happen in the next day. I'll deal with it type of thing. I mean, once I think it gets more widely known that it's, the dollar is really risky. It's very, it's very like unknown. Like to me, to me, that's what it was.

[00:57:58] China's already planning on it. They have a [00:58:00] dollar, the dollar is risky. And so then I was looking at like, okay, all of these assets are denominated in dollars, so they're all risky too. The only way to hedge against that risk is to get out of the USD. Financial system comes in and the only way to do that, there's only a couple of things buying like physical gold gets you out of that system.

[00:58:24] Uh, and Bitcoin. And I'm like, what else? I guess you could invest in foreign currencies, foreign businesses, but it's so tied in with the us dollar and it is, so it is a global and the only way to escape it is, you know, there's, there's limited options to try and step out of that risk. Yeah. Yeah. And I feel like everyone should feel that risk, even if they think it's a small risk, like a 1% risk.

[00:58:55] That means you still should be buying Bitcoin. Right. Because there is a non-zero risk with the us dollar when you just print 40% of the money supply in one year. Yeah, yeah. Maybe, um, to wrap up, we should. Do like a quick, uh, maybe I can explain how I'm doing it. Like my actual strategy. Cause I get a lot of people ask me about how do you buy it, this and that.

[00:59:16] And like, obviously you can go to Google and figure it out. It's not that hard, but like there are scams out there and there are complexities. There's a lot of scams out there. First of all. There's a lot. Yeah. Yeah. That's yeah. That's a good dive into that. This is, this is the way I do it. This is how I'm thinking about it.

[00:59:30] Yeah. I use Coinbase pro when I buy Bitcoin, because it's something the best fees. I think gentlemen, I might be somewhere, I haven't looked at Gemini. Um, I actually created Gemini account. I'm going to keep it a little bit there. Um, so my other strategy is I'd like to diversify some of my holdings. They have in different areas.

[00:59:44] Yeah. I'm going to have some cold storage with multisig, uh, which is basically just a more safer way to have it. I have some that are in wallets that are big institutes that have just like a low to fall risk or whatever. Um, but you generally, you know, when you, I have coins with a third party, you are at risk, it's called [01:00:00] custodian risk.

[01:00:00] And so these are things that people need to understand, do the research on. And, but even cold storage has risks. Like when I think about how, like, if I lost my passphrase, my stuff's gone forever. I can never get it back. But that dude that lost his hard drive that has like 400 million in Bitcoin. Like that pains me.

[01:00:14] And I think we're going to, as the market matures, we're going to reach a point where. People are gonna feel safer with third-party custodians than doing it themselves, but we're just not there yet. Cause like people leave millions of dollars with bank of America that, but like bank of America, literally goats gives it access.

[01:00:30] They could, they, they could block your access to your funds. And so there's risks with everything you have to kind of understand them and figure out a strategy that works for you. So I'm currently earning yield through Celsius and have a bit of block five. And there's another company called holdall not, they're based out of Singapore that have really good rates.

[01:00:46] Um, they're smaller, but I'm, I'm I have a little bit there and I'm earning some of these returns on these things and you know, a lot of the Bitcoin community say, if it's not your keys, not your, not your, your crypto. And I, you know, like, that's fine. I agree with that. But like I'm also still a part, a member of society and there are still things that happen.

[01:01:02] So we haven't really hit full blown, like the world's imploding yet. I hope we don't have to hit that cause can be very bad for a lot of people. And my money is probably not going to matter. Probably the food, my guns are gonna matter more. Right. So like I'm still putting faith that humanity can figure it out.

[01:01:14] I actually believe Bitcoin. Is a revolution happening. It's it's a, it's a, it's a bloodless revolution, fortunately, right. Rather than the actual physical revolution. So I keep that, I think that's going to keep happening. It's going to be pain along the way. And most people are gonna be caught off guard. So that's why I tell everybody that I can like buy whatever.

[01:01:31] You can just have some, because I mean, you having a couple of hundred dollars today in Bitcoin might be, let's say it's worth $10,000 in a few years, you get wiped out with everything else. But at least you have like $10,000 in financial energy that you can use to like cross borders or buy food or like material size that you need.

[01:01:46] Right. Whatever. So like, this is a sovereignty slash safety slash insurance policy that everybody should own. So. Buy it through Coinbase pro or even just Coinbase app. You can use that and just like buy it and keep it. It's not a big deal. I was going to mention that I was going to mention [01:02:00] that because Coinbase, it's easy to set up and it's got a nice user interface.

[01:02:04] It's very simple. One thing I didn't start doing until recently this year actually was all you gotta do is go to pro.coinbase.com. You don't have to create another account. There's the same account and you'll get cheaper fees. So I wish I had known that earlier. It's a little bit more intimidating of a user interface, but really it's pretty simple.

[01:02:20] And so coinbase.com is what I do. And like you were saying, the saying is not your keys, not your Bitcoin, which is true, but also if you lose your keys, Then it's also not your Bitcoin. So there is this, uh, will need to balance if you're not able to take care of custody, your home keys, which is basically saving a password.

[01:02:42] Okay. Let's just keep it simple like that. If you're not going to, if you don't trust yourself, it's probably better to trust Coinbase. Um, because you know, they know what they're doing. They're probably, you know, one of the safest solutions. Uh, and so especially the amount matters a lot. If you have a hundred percent of your work done it, maybe you want to custody it yourself.

[01:02:59] Um, but if it's like 10, some of it, you should custody. Some, everybody should custody, some have some in a wallet or whatever and say different things. And so I have a mix where, um, I like just put mine out a little bit. There's a few options, cause I'm going for a, um, I'm going for a return right now. I'm also, I'm a very, I'm not risk averse.

[01:03:16] Like I invest in companies, I buy assets, like I've been playing poker for years. So like for me, a 6% return. It's like, even if it is the majority of my, my wealth, I'm willing to take that risk because honestly, if something crazy happens, um, and I lose everything, I'm just, I'll have it all back in a year because I have the skills.

[01:03:34] Right. So like, I always put my faith in my skills anyways. So why Celsius over block block fi uh, well, Blackfin recently lowered the rates quite, uh, quite a bit. And, but they're still there. They're both good options, backfires a little bit bigger and they have more funding. And so it's just, yeah, it's going to depend, but Celsius is who I'm using for the loan, because they also have better rates on their loans.

[01:03:54] And so I'm going to take some of that capital and move that into some other assets. And then just, yeah, I have, I have kind of a [01:04:00] strategy, but like I'm taking on risk. I took out a loan it's leveraged. Like, I don't recommend anybody to do that unless you really know what you're doing and you really understand the pros and the cons and that your risk tolerance, and like obviously taking out a loan, you have to pay that interest.

[01:04:12] Back. And then I got paid the principal back. So I factored all this into my model and I realized that it was worth it. Right. And I had no other debt other than that though. So like I'm debt free as a, as a person. Right. And so I I'm willing to have that flexibility, but buy Bitcoin don't sell it. Don't care the price.

[01:04:27] Other than if you're trying to buy more, the only times you care about the prices, if you can buy more and you just hold it forever and think about it as an insurance policy, if you're not into finances or like investing or these things, and you just want to like protect yourself and I'll give one example, I have to go hop on another podcast, but there is one example of how people can think about this.

[01:04:44] So my mom is buying a used car. Okay. Her car is like 300,000 miles. The thing's been amazing for 10 years, but like she needs a new car. Okay. Like it's a safety hazard at this point. And she was going, I need to go to like, let's say a CarMax and buy it with like 25% down, 30% down for down payment. And then they find it it's arrest.

[01:05:02] Okay. But I told her, I was like, no, do not give a dime to them. Because you can take that $5,000 and share it out a little bit of Bitcoin. So I basically converted all of her, all of her retirement money, every health savings, everything she had, we bought Bitcoin, right. Chelsea is going to give her a loan for the down payment at 1% interest because 25% of what she has.

[01:05:24] And she takes that, that, that fear money buys the car and then the, they finance the rest. Right. And she always pay 1% on the down payment of the loan that she borrowed to use for the down payment for the car. Yeah. And with any in a, in a year, it, Bitcoin has been growing at what has been growing, or even if it grows at a fraction, even it grows at 50%, she's going to have double the amount of Bitcoin, take a loan against that, a bigger lawn, low devalue.

[01:05:50] And if she needs more capital, she can actually loan more. Right. Or just pay off that loan and like still be up a hundred, 200%, whatever, whatever it is like, it's [01:06:00] amazing. She, she became her own bank. And she still owns asset that asset. That's going to keep growing. And then she bought that thing. It's not as his car, it's an expense, but she needs it.

[01:06:10] Right. And it's like incredible, right. Where most people are like, oh, I got $5,000. Let me go buy that car. Let me get that down payment. Right? That's no, no, no, you buy assets and anytime you can, you leverage them. And this is, what's so crazy about defined crypto. It's gonna open this up. Like most people need to own real estate.

[01:06:24] I mean, banks don't really like give you a collateralized loan, like for your jewelry or diamonds or your computers. Like it's just not, there's not a market for doing that. Whereas Bitcoin and crypto is going to be this entirely new lending market. That's going to revolutionize everything. It's insane. I agree.

[01:06:39] And one other way to think about it that I think will help them. People that are not, that don't want to go deep, you know, they don't care about collateralizing it. Right. Think of Bitcoin as a savings account. Then you, you don't look at price with a savings account. And I, the example is my girlfriend. I told her, I was like, look, it was in 2018.

[01:06:57] I was like, just start putting a percentage of your income into, into Bitcoin. Uh, and she's been doing that for this entire time and she's got it's out. You know, she's been working for the same company, highest maxing out 401k for. You know, 15 years. And in three years she has like three times as much money in her with her Bitcoin than she has accumulated in that savings.

[01:07:20] And so thinking about it as a savings account takes pressure off. It's like, look, it's in savings, hands off. Don't worry about price. Don't have to worry about collateralizing that's the true high-dollar strategy is just, this is the savings account. And then, uh, I think people will be happy. They take that strategy.

[01:07:37] Yep. No, it's amazing. Yeah, we could definitely do like around two sometime. I mean, we could always talk about this forever, but I think it's a, we need to do round two later this year. Yeah. When it starts going parabolic, I'm like, I'll be like, should I take a loan against this? Or should I sell something?

[01:07:52] Yeah. Or just let it sit there, like do nothing. So a lot of times, I mean, think about it. Warren buffet makes most of his money by making no decisions every year. He might make one or two buying [01:08:00] decisions and that's it. That's why Berkshire Hathaway has $130 billion in cash because they don't know where to put it.

[01:08:06] Yep. I just want to make one decision this year. That's it. One decision every four years. Do I buy, do I sell any. I'll tell you what that should be. No, just to try and accumulate more Bitcoin, which is, you know, just kind of my financial strategy at this point. Yeah. Yeah. Same here. Same here. All right. This, this chat.

[01:08:25] It's been awesome. And have a fun next podcast. I'll get this up. I think it will be helpful for people and yeah. Brown to later this year. Yeah. When people can find me a column.coach, uh that's one L they can always reach out to me questions I'm on Instagram or whatever. Happy to help. I'll link everything in a description too.

[01:08:39] Cause you got a lot of, you got a lot of good articles on Bitcoin. Yeah. I've got a few on my website. Yeah. Getting started. How to buy things like that. Yep. Cool. All right. Come I'll chat with you later. Wow.

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